Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are issued from various governments. Considerable effort is expended on restraining particular approaches. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from enemy soil, a ability enabled by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to counter approaching aerial threats streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: several firings deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably supplied through partner states. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly gives way to sober acceptance: perhaps the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a heavy machine gun engaged a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – most likely Western-made equipment. Sadly, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: multiple fatalities, damage and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a reliance that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to fill in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, discussion and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from US leadership follows the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, certainly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership functions according to a assumption familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government presumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to relinquish the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does little to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its benefit in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing civilians and areas but avoiding a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its favour.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: personal goals to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
