Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the country and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. They writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
